Forward-walk performance · last 90 days
Real signals. Real outcomes. No curve-fitting.
Every conviction call the model has fired in the last 90 days, marked to the price we'd have transacted at. Costs subtracted. Drawdowns left in. The chart below is what actually happened.
Not investment advicePast performance — including realized forward-walk results — is not indicative of future returns. Alpha Geist is a research tool; we don't execute trades, and subscriber outcomes will differ based on timing, sizing, fees, and venue conditions.
Account Value
$10,000
ROI
0.0%
Hit Rate
0%
Sharpe
0.0
Showing 90-day performance across all strategies.
No track record yet
Once the signal pipeline has resolved enough contracts, the equity curve and stats will appear here.
Methodology
How every number on this page was computed.
- BankrollNotional $10,000 starting bankroll, allocated across strategies. Position sizing follows quarter-Kelly, capped at 4% of bankroll per trade.
- WindowRolling 90 days ending today for the public view. Subscribers see the full history at /app/track-record.
- FillsMarked at the venue price published when the signal fired. We do not assume best-quote fills or look-ahead pricing.
- CostsVenue fees and slippage are subtracted before P&L. The signals harness applies a cents-per-fill cost model calibrated to Kalshi and Polymarket order-book depth.
- SurvivorshipEvery resolved signal is included — wins, losses, and the drawdowns. We do not retroactively prune the curve.
- AuditabilityModel and signal ledger are versioned in git. The same backtest CLI that produced these numbers ships in the repo.
Open the terminal.
See tonight's slate. Follow a few conviction calls. Decide for yourself.