Risk disclosure
Stub — last meaningful update: 2026-05-31
This page is a stub while the live policy is being prepared with counsel ahead of public launch. The principles below describe how Alpha Geist intends to operate. For specifics before the formal policy lands, email adin@alphageist.io.
What you should expect
Prediction-market trading carries the risk of partial or total loss of the capital you commit to any position. The fact that Alpha Geist identifies an edge does not mean a given trade will be profitable. Edge is a population-level claim across many trades; individual trades resolve as wins or losses with no guarantee.
What the public track record does and does not say
- The numbers on /track-record are forward-walk performance — what the signals actually returned, marked at the price published when each signal fired, with costs and slippage subtracted.
- Past performance — even forward-walk and survivorship-clean — is not indicative of future results. The model can degrade. Markets can change structure. A drawdown worse than any seen in the published history is possible.
- Subscriber outcomes will differ from the track record based on timing of entry, position sizing, venue fees, and execution discipline.
What Alpha Geist will not do
- Execute, place, or otherwise transact a trade on your behalf.
- Hold, custody, or have access to your funds or your venue accounts.
- Provide individualized financial, tax, or legal advice.
- Guarantee any particular return, hit rate, Sharpe ratio, drawdown floor, or uptime.
What this stub is not
This page does not yet enumerate jurisdiction-specific disclosures (CFTC / NFA event contracts, state-by-state prediction-market regulation, EU MiFID II categorisation where applicable). Those land in the formal disclosure.